Impact on the hydrological and agricultural regime

WP coordination: VITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute (Gábor Bálint)

The given major task is aimed at the production of future hydrological and agricultural scenarios based on the output of regional climate models. Analysis of the simulation results received by hydrological models serves as direct or indirect input for water management decision support systems. Planned studies include the investigation of changes in the hydrological regime of various catchments; the estimation of changes in riverine flood characteristics; estimation of the long-term evaporation rates from large lakes under climate change scenarios and their comparison with historical estimates; study of changes in water stress for crops; study the changes in low water conditions.

The use of different conceptual hydrological models is foreseen to produce long term hydrological series. Upper-Tisza, Mures/Maros and Arges catchments are foreseen comprising river systems in various climate and geo-morphological settings across the region. The simulations will be transient, covering the period 1960 – 2050. A validation for the Tisza Basin will be carried out based on the period 1984 – 2003 of observations. These partly physically based models will be used together with continuous stochastic simulation models to produce climate effect reports for a the selected basins with different types of hydrological regimes and flood problems including the interaction of basins of different runoff production significance and the coincidence and superposition of flood waves. (VITUKI and INHGA)

BME will investigate shallow water bodies regarding evaporation from their water surface consisting of the largest water loss term in the lakes’ water budget. Any expected future change in mean air temperatures, wind conditions, and humidity would greatly affect these water balances even if precipitation and its annual distribution remained the same. Evaporation calculations will be performed with the help of the lake module of Morton’s WREVAP model.

Wegener Center will study possible changes in water stress for crops in selected regions at very high horizontal resolution (< 100 m) using climate model results, a high resolution elevation model, a model for calculating potential evapotranspiration and, depending on the availability of cultivation data in the specific regions, a crop-yield model. Climate change impacts will be studied by simulating one present-day period and one future scenario at the end of the general CLAVIER simulation period.

Results of WP3c

Status of WP3c Tasks (internal)