Economic Vulnerability of CEE Societies and Economic Impact Assessment

WP coordination: JOANNEUM RESEARCH, Institute of Technology and Regional Policy, InTeReg (Franz Prettenthaler)

The main objective of WP4 is to evaluate the economic impacts of Climate Change in Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. The knowledge gained through the achievement of the scientific goals within the prior Work Packages builds the basis for the work in WP4. This WP connects the findings of Work Packages 1, 2 and 3a,b,c by “translating” the possible effects of climate change on e.g. weather patterns and extremes, agriculture, water resources and infrastructure into economic and social impacts. Four economic sectors are of particular interest - agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector. In order to estimate economic vulnerability and impacts on the national economies based on the findings of WP1-3, representative case studies of selected regions within the analyzed countries will be conducted for each sector. Additionally, the risk transfer mechanisms and institutional settings in place that can deal with economic risks from natural hazards like e.g. flood events or droughts are analysed.
In order to fulfil the objectives of WP4, it is essential:

  • to conduct a study of vulnerabilities of the study region (in a socio-economic vulnerability approach), that exist prior to and independently of hazards related to Climate Change and that put socio-economic structures at centre stage. This is an important prerequisite and starting point of the survey, and allows the (pre-) selection of the case study areas, i.e. “the most vulnerable regions” with respect to the analyzed economic sectors.
  • to link the scientific results of Work Packages 1, 2 (climate data and simulations) and the results of the impact studies carried out in WP 3a,b,c,d (as e.g. climate change impacts on weather regimes, extreme events, the hydrological and agricultural regimes as well as on infrastructure) to the selected case study areas and their socioeconomic characteristics.

Based on the findings of the case studies, the influence of climate change scenarios on the national economies is estimated and conclusions on the overall macroeconomic relevance of the studied phenomena are drawn.
The analysis of economic impacts will be jointly carried out by all partners in WP4.

Results of WP4

Status of WP4 Tasks (internal)